A strong El Niño is building, and the spice trade is already bracing. In our October 2026 Market Update, Jonathan Raju, COO of High Quality Organics sits down to unpack what this weather pattern means for the tree spices that anchor so many clean-label formulations: cinnamon, clove, nutmeg, and mace. Whether you buy them by the container or blend them into your bestselling chai, this is the forecast to build your sourcing plan around.
Tree spices don't get a do-over
Here's the part most buyers miss. Cinnamon, clove, and nutmeg come from perennial trees, not annual crops. There's no replanting next season, no quick recovery. When a tree is stressed by drought or badly timed rain, the bill comes due later, often a full 18 months down the line, in the form of thinner harvests and lower grades. That lag is exactly why your coverage horizon needs to stretch further than it usually does.
Clove: lock in before the squeeze
Clove trees live and die by the timing of the rains, and a poorly timed season translates directly into lost crop. Layer a strong El Niño on top of the supply trouble already coming out of Madagascar, and the picture gets tight fast. Jonathan's guidance is simple: contract forward for Q4 2026 and Q1 2027 now. Counting on spot purchases once the market wakes up is how you end up paying a premium for whatever's left.
Nutmeg and mace: buy whole, buy long
Drought hits nutmeg differently. Stressed trees drop fruit early, which means smaller, lighter kernels with less volatile oil and a flatter flavor profile. For brands that lead with "single-origin" and "full flavor" on the label, that's a real problem. Two moves here: extend your coverage horizon now, and prioritize whole nutmeg over pre-ground. Whole spice holds its aromatics far longer, which gives you more control over quality through a volatile stretch, and it fits right in with the whole-spice movement consumers are already leaning into.
Cassia cinnamon: watch the grade, not just the price
Cassia is the third crop on the watch list. In dry El Niño conditions, bark becomes harder to peel cleanly, and peeling is where cinnamon grades are made or lost. Expect more lower-grade material in the market. Jonathan's advice for cinnamon buyers is to track the grade mix, not just the headline price, and to build coverage while the market is still calm.
The takeaway
Perennial crops don't bounce back quickly from climate stress. The buyers who come through this cycle in good shape will be the ones who planned further out than usual, pulling coverage forward before shortages and quality dips turn into a scramble.
Where transparency earns its keep
This is the moment a responsibly grown, fully traceable supply chain stops being a marketing line and starts being a hedge. At High Quality Organics, we diversify origins, keep direct relationships with the growers behind every lot, and monitor crop conditions on the ground so our partners see the shift coming rather than reading about it after the fact. When weather moves the market, information and relationships are the best protection you have.
Signals to watch
Over the coming months, keep an eye on three things: the timing of regional monsoons, early harvest reports out of Southeast Asia, and how fast other buyers move to lock in coverage. The sooner you secure your needs with a supplier you trust, the less exposed you are to whatever the season delivers.
Get the full breakdown
Listen to the complete October 2026 Market Update on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you stream. And if you're ready to source premium, transparent, responsibly grown organic herbs and spices, reach out to the HQO team today.